Future of peacekeeping
In the next decade the world could be transformed by climate-related crises, lethal and disruptive technologies, political discord and polarization, and new non-state armed groups. Civil strife could emerge in states currently regarded as stable.Conflicts could spread across borders, and wars may be fought in virtual space without the firing of a single bullet.
The Future of Peacekeeping Operations (FOPO) project attempts to imagine what the missions of the future might look like. Begun in 2020, FOPO has drawn on broad and inclusive consultations with UN and non-UN stakeholders, including interviews with representatives of Member States, academia, civil society, regional organizations and current and former peacekeeping practitioners. In addition, a series of think piece papers were commissioned.
Themes explored in the project centered around four broad areas: a) the geostrategic environment and political processes, b) the changing conflict environment, c) the international responses to conflict and d) Peacekeeping policy approaches.
Project interlocutors also identified some key trends affecting conflict such as:
- competition versus cooperation
- protracted, internationalized armed conflicts
- blurred lines between war and peace
- weakening of universalist norms
- climate change
- socio-economic inequality
While geopolitical polarisation will likely make it difficult to achieve consensus around new peacekeeping missions, the UN’s peace and security pillar may still be asked to respond through new forms of flexible and adaptative deployments, as well as enhanced advisory and thematic support functions.
Moreover, in response to erosion of normative consensus, the Secretariat may need to step up efforts to build support for unified and principled approaches to peace, and to affirm the UN’s norms and values to which all Member States have committed.
Socioeconomic exclusion and inequality are likely to remain drivers of civil instability and potential conflict The strengths of peacekeeping operations may need to be more closely integrated into efforts that support the 2030 Agenda and Sustainable Development Goals.
New Agenda for Peace
As of early 2023, the FOPO project, is serving as a launching point for DPO’s work in coordination with other UN entities to develop a broader strategic initiative: the New Agenda for Peace.
This agenda, called for in the Secretary-General’s Our Common Agenda report, aims to achieve
- a better understanding of the underlying drivers and systems of influence that are sustaining conflict,
- a renewed effort to agree on more effective collective security responses, and
- a meaningful set of steps to manage emerging risks.
For DPO, a key theme is ensuring that peacekeeping operations of the present and future contribute to these core goals. With our missions’ often-multidimensional mandates and strong presence on the ground, peacekeeping can be a vehicle for activities and priorities identified within the broader strategic framework of the New Agenda For Peace.
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