The security situation in South Sudan has significantly deteriorated amidst rising tensions between the country’s two main political parties, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), led by President Salva Kiir Mayardit, and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement in Opposition (SLPM-IO), headed by First Vice President, Riek Machar. This has put the already-fragile country at serious risk of a relapse into civil war.
On March 4th, a youth militia known as the White Army took over barracks previously occupied by the South Sudan People’s Defense Forces (SSPDF), the armed forces of the SPLM. In retaliation, civilian areas across the Upper Nile region were subjected to aerial bombardments using devices alleged to contain a highly flammable accelerant. These indiscriminate attacks on civilians have led to multiple deaths and horrific injuries, as well as the displacement of an estimated 100,000 people.
Fears that the violence will escalate in Upper Nile are being fuelled by reports of further mobilization of the White Army and SSPDF, including the alleged recruitment of children into their ranks.
On 24 March, the escalating tensions spilled over to the capital Juba when the SSPDF and forces affiliated with the SPLM-IO’s Sudan People’s Liberation Army-In Opposition (SPLA-IO) clashed at locations to the south and west of the city. This is creating fear and anxiety among communities that the conflict will become widespread, as it did when civil wars erupted in 2013 and 2016. The UN has also warned that it is putting the country’s 2018 Revitalized Peace Agreement at risk.
On the political front, several SPLM-IO military and civilian officials have been removed from their positions, detained, or gone into hiding. On March 26, the First Vice President, Riek Machar, was also reportedly placed under house arrest.
“South Sudan is teetering on the edge of a relapse into civil war,” warned Nicholas Haysom, head of the UN peacekeeping mission in South Sudan (UNMISS), during remarks to the press. “The collective message of the region and the international community is the same. We remain convinced that there is only one way out of the cycle of conflict, and that is to return to the Revitalized Peace Agreement, in letter and spirit.”
The UN is engaged in diplomatic efforts alongside international and regional partners to try to pull the country back from the brink of a war that would devastate South Sudan and the entire region. UNMISS, the African Union (AU), East Africa’s Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), and the Reconstituted Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (RJMEC) – a South Sudanese group responsible for overseeing the implementation of the peace agreement - are working tirelessly to prevent the loss of all the hard-won gains made since the peace agreement was signed.
However, these efforts can only succeed if the parties are willing to engage in peace efforts.
“Now more than ever, the leaders of South Sudan must hear a clear, unified and resounding message:
Put down the weapons,” said the UN Secretary General on Friday. “Put all the people of South Sudan first.”
Background
South Sudan gained independence from Sudan in 2011, marking the end of a decades-long war between the Government of Sudan and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM). However, peace was short-lived.
Political tensions arose within South Sudan’s leadership, with civil war erupting just two years later between forces loyal to President Salva Kiir and those aligned with First Vice President Riek Machar.
The ensuing war was marked by ethnic violence, mass atrocities, and a widespread humanitarian crisis. A peace deal signed in 2018, the Revitalized Peace Agreement, brought hope of a better future. However, the implementation of the agreement has stagnated, leading to several extensions of the transitional period and delays in holding the country’s first democratic elections. Recently, tensions escalated between the country’s two main parties, leaving the peace deal on the verge of collapse and the country at risk of sliding back into war. This is exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in the country, where over nine million people need humanitarian assistance this year, around 75% of the population. It also comes at a time when scarce humanitarian resources are stretched to breaking point by the influx of an additional 1.1 million returnees and refugees seeking sanctuary from the war in neighbouring Sudan. Cholera is breaking out, and with oil revenue plummeting and inflation skyrocketing 300%, the country is facing an economic meltdown.
The United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) was established in 2011 to help the new country consolidate peace and security and lay the foundations for development. The mission’s mandate is now focused on advancing a multiyear strategy to prevent a return to civil war, enable the self-reliance of South Sudan, and address critical gaps towards building durable peace to support inclusive and accountable governance and free and fair, peaceful elections.